Archive - The Counterfactual

The CCP's Hacking Army, Critical Infra, Trump's Texts

Jul 22 • Sophie Kim

China's Technological Playbook

Part 1: The Theft Economy

Jul 16 • Sophie Kim

What’s wrong with grantmaking?

And how do we fix it?

Jul 8 • Sophie Kim

June 2026

How to Solve AI Biosecurity

my best 11,600-word guess - Bioweapon.AI is finally finished!!

Jun 26 • Sophie Kim

When Russia Wants a Bioweapon,

Jun 4 • Sophie Kim

Turns Out, You Can’t Just Bomb a Datacenter

Notes on kinetic MAIM & escalation constraints

Jun 3 • Sophie Kim

May 2026

How to Actually Spend Billions on AI Safety

A concrete strategy for deploying the largest wave of philanthropic capital in history

May 12 • Sophie Kim

April 2026

Stop Donating to AI Safety Research*

*if you want us to win

Apr 25 • Sophie Kim

Should We Be Worried About Bioweapons?

An Analysis of Historical Case Studies - Part 1: Non-State Actors

Apr 17 • Sophie Kim

The Anthropic IPO Is Coming. We Aren't Ready for It.

More money is coming than AI safety has ever seen. The capacity to deploy it doesn't exist yet.

Apr 12 • Sophie Kim and Ady Mehta

Uncensorable, Unmonitorable, Uncontrollable: U.S. Policy Options for Open-Weight Biosecurity Risk

many many weeks, 5k words, finally published on uncensorable.ai

Apr 11 • Sophie Kim

Contra Abi Olvera on AI Biosecurity Risk

Terrorists aren’t optimizing for controllability. They are optimizing for catastrophe.

Apr 9 • Sophie Kim

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